BRITISH BETTING & GAMING SITES

BETTING EXCHANGES ARTICLE

BETFAIR IN RUNNING FOOTBALL BETTING TACTICS

BETFAIR IN RUNNING FOOTBALL BETTING TACTICS

By Andrew Hughes of Betfair IN-RUNNING BETTING

What is it?

One of the many advantages of betting on the Premier League with Betfair is the opportunity to back and lay in-running.

There are few more exciting ways to bet and you only have to watch how the match odds fluctuate during a game to realise that these are volatile markets in which those who know their football can find a hundred and one ways to cash in. Though you’ll find plenty of action on the likes of the over/under 2.5 goals and correct score markets, the most liquidity is in the match odds market.

If you are going to try betting in-running, you will need access to live coverage – radio, or preferably television.

Obviously it’s best to use commentary or pictures with the smallest time delay possible.

After all, you wouldn’t be wanting to back a team to win who have just conceded a free-kick on the edge of the box before you realise what’s happened. In-running football markets are always suspended in the event of a goal, sending off or penalty and unmatched bets are cancelled.

Take a view

As with all sports betting, the better you know your teams, the more opportunities you will spot in-running.

You can use your knowledge of the competitors to take a view on how the match is likely to go and wait for an opportunity to exploit it.

For example, you may feel that Everton have a fitness edge over Sunderland. If the game appears to be heading for a draw, the odds on both teams will start to drift and you may want to back David Moyes’ men to make their fitness tell in the last few minutes.

If you know how a team usually plays, this can also present you with opportunities.

If you spot that Spurs for example are playing more defensively than usual or you notice that their full-backs are not making their usual surging runs, you may feel they have a negative game plan and are worthy lay candidates. Teams with defences that you do not rate can also be worth opposing in-running if it looks like they are sitting back trying to hold on for a point, particularly if they are up against opponents with plenty of attacking options.

The key thing to remember about in-running betting is flexibility.

You may have pre-conceived ideas about the merits of the two teams involved, but you should be prepared to adapt to circumstances during the game based on what your eyes are telling you. Stubbornness is not a helpful quality in this kind of betting.

Against the crowd

Follow the match odds during a live football game and you will see that the market fluctuates wildly and often overreacts to events, even comparatively minor events such as corners. A series of attacks can see a team’s odds tumble as punters scramble to back them as they appear to be on top. But 90 minutes is a long time and the fortunes of the two teams are likely to flip-flop many times. The way to take advantage of this overreaction is to go against the crowd, not to follow them.

In some cases, the overreaction is so marked that you can profit from it without too much thought, risk, or even without having to wait too long.

Following on from the above example, look at some stats regarding how often a team scores from a corner – not as often as one might think. Should Liverpool win a corner, their odds will momentarily shorten. A swift lay of them and when the corner comes to nothing, their price will lengthen to a more sensible level and you can back them to make a profit of some sorts. An even better strategy is to be continually asking yourself whether the prices on offer represent the true chances of the two teams.

With just 10 minutes left on the clock and Man Utd drawing 1-1 at the Stadium of Light should they be as short as 2.2? The stats tell you Sir Alex Ferguson’s side should rightly be favourites but isn’t that price just too short? Very often the market assumes the favourites will eventually win and in the process prices them up in-running shorter than they should be. This provides good opportunities for laying. As long as they don’t score within the next few minutes, at worst you can re-back them at a slightly bigger price.

TOP TIP

Trading the draw in the last ten minutes of a match is an old favourite, but a pretty reliable one for in-running punters.

In games that are all-square, the draw price tends to collapse significantly around the 80-82 minute mark.

Back it before this and watch the price drop.

Then choose your moment to lay it off and lock in a profit.

By Pendil at British Betting and Gaming Sites.