 |
Betfair – Epsom Derby Preview
Its the Derby tomorrow – Saturday 6th June. The Derby seems to have lost a bit of its glamour over the last few years,but it is one of the few horse races i still have a bet on these days. Maybe the move to Saturday from Wednesday somehow diluted its impact as the race is now lost in a sea of other Saturday races – about 10 meeting in U.K. and Ireland tomorrow. Thats great for racing fans who like the day out,but the sheer number of meetings that take place now make trying to make sense of the form almost impossible. Sports betting is getting more popular,particularly with the younger punters,as they shun racing as a vehicle to making their betting pay – its just too much like hard work studying all that form. The Irish,like so many U.K.races of the last few years,have a stranglehold on tomorrow’s race and they dominate the betting. Below is a review from the Betfair Betting Exchange Team of what they think…… The recent passing of the legendary trainer Vincent O’Brien will have brought back many Derby memories for racing fans. Among many other achievements, O’Brien saddled the winner of the Derby at Epsom on no less than six occasions—Larkspur, Sir Ivor, Nijinsky, Roberto, The Minstrel and Golden Fleece—and his successor at Ballydoyle, Aidan O’Brien, has six runners in Britain’s premier race this Saturday, including current favourite Fame And Glory. However, for all Aidan O’Brien has a particularly strong team for the Derby, he faces stiff opposition from the John Oxx-trained Sea The Stars, who was such an impressive winner of the Guineas. Much of the debate since Newmarket has been whether the son of Cape Cross will stay a mile and a half. The Dante has been the best trial in recent years, but this year’s winner, Black Bear Island, has been passed over by O’Brien’s stable jockey Johnny Murtagh. Sea The Stars - The most likely winner of the Derby. He was having only his fourth career start when powering up the hill to land the Guineas impressively with Gan Amhras and Rip Van Winkle third and fourth and subsequent easy Irish Guineas winner Mastercraftsman in fifth. High-class and rock-solid form. Before Newmarket there was a doubt about whether he’d have the speed for a Guineas and before Epsom there is a doubt about whether he’ll have the stamina for a Derby. Fame And Glory - Unbeaten in four starts, including in a Group 1 in France at two, and has maintained his progression, taking the Ballysax and the Derrinstown Stud Derby trial, beating the John Oxx-trained Mourayan impressively by five lengths on the second occasion. His form is neither so solid nor so strong as that of Sea The Stars, but he has many of the attributes you would wish for in a top horse, and the step up to a mile and a half may take his form to another level. Gan Amhras - Couldn’t have run a much more promising Derby trial when third to Sea The Stars in the Guineas, particularly as his pedigree leaves no room for doubting that he’s going to be well suited by a mile and a half—by Galileo out of a Darshaan mare—and, from last year’s winning stable, he’d surely be a lot shorter in the betting were the Guineas first and fourth not lining up as well. Rip Van Winkle - A talking horse who has yet to show his true eloquence on the racecourse, shaping really well in the Dewhurst and having an interrupted preparation before the Guineas at Newmarket, where he again caught the eye, short of room at a crucial stage and finishing strongly. He still looked to be learning his trade in the Guineas, and there is no doubt he is up to winning a top race this year, though it might just come at a mile and a quarter given the speed in the female line of his pedigree. Black Bear Island - Born for this being a brother to the 2002 Derby winner High Chaparral, and won the Dante at York by a head from Freemantle, though the finish was bunched, with Kite Wood not beaten far in fifth and a below-par Crowded House back in eighth. Got going only in the last two furlongs at York, showing a powerful stride, and is bound to be suited by the step up to a mile and a half. Could easily have been a worthy Ballydoyle number one in an ordinary year. Crowded House - Showed an exceptional turn of foot to win the Racing Post Trophy in a good time at two years, and looked every inch a classic winner in waiting, but bypassed the Guineas in favour of a Derby prep in the Dante at York, where his short-term aspirations took a blow, a subsequent dirty scope offering some explanation. There will still be a top-class performance in him this year, but it’s probably asking a bit too much for him to bounce back so quickly.
|
|